Will Xbox Live Survive 2008 Holiday Stress?

This year many gamers will open new consoles for the holidays and many of those same gamers are going bring their console “live” on Xbox Live the same day. Traditionally we’ve found Xbox Live falls under the weight of the holiday rush much like Apple’s iTunes. Will we repeat history again?

Although a fully loaded Xbox Live service is money in the bank, how much money will Microsoft lose when gamers login for the first time to a service in a state of destruction? People say first impressions are extremely important, but Microsoft makes a poor first impression every holiday. Xbox Live’s Jerry Johnson told Eurogamer:

“I can tell you that when Robbie Bach is on the phone on Christmas Day calling people asking what the hell is going on, and that’s coming down from Steve Ballmer… that’s the kind of attention it got last holiday.

Many things have changed since then, and we realised [sic] the kind of growth trajectory we were on and had to prepare for it.” (Kotaku)

It’s obvious the top executives at Microsoft want to give customers a great first impression and, after a few repeated holiday down times, this year is the chance to change it all. By now, Microsoft should be fully aware of the holiday flash crowd and have a system ready to cover the load.

Plenty of gamers login because their console automatically signs in on startup, but a handful of those gameres will be shopping for Xbox Live Arcade games to see what Microsoft is now offering them and their new console. Many XBLA games the current 360 crowd is bored of will be fresh and new to holiday adopters so it’s very important to keep the system online.

Much like Amazon, sales will decrease when the service is busy or under heavy load. Hopefully Microsoft is ready to make a great first impression to new buyers and give them the option to buy high valued (high markup) electronic downloads.

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Wallets Shrink, Used Game Market GrowsWallets Shrink, Used Game Market Grows

Over the last year we’ve seen developers scrambling to find “value add” features to new game purchases. Their goal is to convince the customer to buy new instead of used because developers don’t see a penny from a used game sale. While GameStop sees 48% profit margins from the used game market developers struggle to stay floating in the industry.

for-saleThis is not the fault of GameStop and their 48% profit margins because they’re only getting 7% to 20% profit margins (say analysts) on new game sales. As someone that’s run a game store online, if you’re getting 15%+ on a new game you’ve got some great hookups in the distribution channel or are buying in huge quantities.

Buying games in huge quantities to build profit margins can be a huge mistake in this industry. Gamers are fickle little creatures and they’re going to buy their top tier games for a few weeks and then sales will drop significantly. No retail chain wants to purchase a thousand copies of GTA IV (only as an example) and sell seven hundred over the first few week to be stuck holding onto a few hundred copies when the dust settles. Now you’ll have to put them on sale to get them out of the store because the hardcore gamer have already done their shopping and you’re not going to get any price protection if you’re not a major player in the industry.

Why take 7% profit margins when you can get 48% on a used game? The gamers don’t seem to mind because they’ll trade in a used copy of a sports title like Madden to save $5.00 on the latest franchise release. Gamers will buy Fable 2, beat it in a week and rush to the store to get the “most for their dollar” before the game gets stale and buy-back prices drop like a stone. Why not rent Fable 2 and save yourself $50.00? Of course, renting pisses off developers as well because they see no additional revenue.

While the economy struggles and consumers fight for their jobs, the entertainment side of life continues to grow. People would rather “cocoon” in their homes playing video games and watching movies on their brand new HD television because it takes them away from the low points of the economy if only for a few hours. History has shown us trends in entertainment during the down points of economies, it’s natural to want to get away for a bit.

But, consumers want to play these games on the cheap because their job may not be there tomorrow. Saving $5.00 knowing the store just took the title in for half the price doesn’t bother you; $5.00 in your pocket is better than in their pocket right? The fact that they just pocketed upward of 40% on the game doesn’t matter to you — it’s all about your bottom line!

While we’re bargain hunting during the recession developers are going to try and up sell you to a new copy of the game. If that means giving you special game items and features with a “one time code” upon purchase, it will be up to you to decide if it’s valuable. All the while GameStop will lock out the game industry from selling used games because 42% of their overall gross profit is from used game sales.

You, the consumer, benefits from a slightly cheaper game, bargain bin fire sales and additional game features if you do choose to buy new. The economic down turn is a great time to be a gamer, as long as you remain employed.

Rumor: Xbox 360’s New 60GB ModelRumor: Xbox 360’s New 60GB Model

The latest and greatest rumor on the Net brings back old rumors and spreads them with new rumors. The Xbox 360 will be getting a price drop on their 20GB model because they’re going to release a new 60GB model to replace it.

So, in essence, the price drop is just to move consoles off the shelves to make room for one of greater disk capacity. With all these Rock Band style games arriving, each with full song downloadable content (DLC), we’re going to need bigger disks! However, we don’t all want to invest in the 120GB Xbox 360.

Ars Technica says this information comes from a reliable source. Reliable source or common sense? The idea of dropping the Xbox 360 Pro down to a price that’s only USD $20.00 away from their lower model seems a bit rediculous if the original rumor is considered true. DLC is growing, disk capacity is becoming a bigger issue and finding manufacturers to build older 20GB disks is going to get tougher as months tick by.

Trading Used Games, Like Fraud?Trading Used Games, Like Fraud?

David Braben, founder of Frontier Developments, says retail outlets that buy and sell pre-owned games are “essentially defrauding the industry.” Although multiplayer gaming might not be a huge threat, the single player experience in games may die out because gamers play the game quickly and resell it back to places like GameStop for others to buy.

Developers don’t get a dime when a game goes traded, many gamers will “share” the single player experience with a single copy of the game by reselling it over and over. The end result, retail outlets make a good penny for marking up old games while developers see nothing. This is really how game retail outlets survive because the margins on video games is so damn low.

The story has been heard before, developers want a piece of the action so they’re taking steps to entice people to keep the game with renewed downloadable content on old games; you can’t experience the new content without keeping the game around longer. In the world of low margin games, high cost development and short-lived story lines the solutions to this problem aren’t exactly obvious.

Braben’s idea of a solution is to offer two versions of the game, a not for resale/rental version at a high price, say $160, and a low priced version that cannot be shared (heavily DRM’ed?) for $50. In essence, gamers would no longer be able to trade in games because the idea of spending double for a game so you can resell it makes no sense to most gamers (including myself.)

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