Will Xbox Live Survive 2008 Holiday Stress?

This year many gamers will open new consoles for the holidays and many of those same gamers are going bring their console “live” on Xbox Live the same day. Traditionally we’ve found Xbox Live falls under the weight of the holiday rush much like Apple’s iTunes. Will we repeat history again?

Although a fully loaded Xbox Live service is money in the bank, how much money will Microsoft lose when gamers login for the first time to a service in a state of destruction? People say first impressions are extremely important, but Microsoft makes a poor first impression every holiday. Xbox Live’s Jerry Johnson told Eurogamer:

“I can tell you that when Robbie Bach is on the phone on Christmas Day calling people asking what the hell is going on, and that’s coming down from Steve Ballmer… that’s the kind of attention it got last holiday.

Many things have changed since then, and we realised [sic] the kind of growth trajectory we were on and had to prepare for it.” (Kotaku)

It’s obvious the top executives at Microsoft want to give customers a great first impression and, after a few repeated holiday down times, this year is the chance to change it all. By now, Microsoft should be fully aware of the holiday flash crowd and have a system ready to cover the load.

Plenty of gamers login because their console automatically signs in on startup, but a handful of those gameres will be shopping for Xbox Live Arcade games to see what Microsoft is now offering them and their new console. Many XBLA games the current 360 crowd is bored of will be fresh and new to holiday adopters so it’s very important to keep the system online.

Much like Amazon, sales will decrease when the service is busy or under heavy load. Hopefully Microsoft is ready to make a great first impression to new buyers and give them the option to buy high valued (high markup) electronic downloads.

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Congratulations to PopCap for showing why casual games will always be a viable market. Let’s put this in perspective, investors believe GTA IV will push 13-million sales by the end of 2008 and, as of January 2008, Halo 3 had sold 8 million copies. PopCap’s little casual game has hit 25 million units sold, that’s fairly impressive considering these blockbuster titles haven’t achieved such numbers.

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Which game had the smallest budget? Bejeweled or GTA IV? We’re pretty sure PopCap did not give the bejeweled team $100-million to make it! Investors take notice, casual games have a long lasting appeal.

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Although PlayStation 3 is still third in worldwide sales, behind the Xbox 360 by about 5-million units, the PS3 community services now have as many online gamers as Xbox 360 says Sony. Sony posted on their blog saying, “with 14 million active accounts and 273 million pieces of content downloaded, we know that you’re thirsting for this digital entertainment.”

Although US sales of the 360 are killing the PS3, the community membership does give gamers a reason to get online with the PS3. Nobody wants to buy into a console that has very few active online games or an easy way to find friends (*cough* Wii). Having 14-million users helps them bridge the sales gap by building gamer confidence. Social networking is the new term; gamers want to socialize with each other online and with their consoles.

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Eventually gamers may have access to Sony’s Home project, which could raise the community figures and give Xbox 360 something less to brag about. Although, we’re sure Sony would rather be boasting “number one” console again, at least they’ve finally got a win on their side because 14-million users is only the beginning for them.

Plus, it’s hard to argue free.