Will Xbox Live Survive 2008 Holiday Stress?

This year many gamers will open new consoles for the holidays and many of those same gamers are going bring their console “live” on Xbox Live the same day. Traditionally we’ve found Xbox Live falls under the weight of the holiday rush much like Apple’s iTunes. Will we repeat history again?

Although a fully loaded Xbox Live service is money in the bank, how much money will Microsoft lose when gamers login for the first time to a service in a state of destruction? People say first impressions are extremely important, but Microsoft makes a poor first impression every holiday. Xbox Live’s Jerry Johnson told Eurogamer:

“I can tell you that when Robbie Bach is on the phone on Christmas Day calling people asking what the hell is going on, and that’s coming down from Steve Ballmer… that’s the kind of attention it got last holiday.

Many things have changed since then, and we realised [sic] the kind of growth trajectory we were on and had to prepare for it.” (Kotaku)

It’s obvious the top executives at Microsoft want to give customers a great first impression and, after a few repeated holiday down times, this year is the chance to change it all. By now, Microsoft should be fully aware of the holiday flash crowd and have a system ready to cover the load.

Plenty of gamers login because their console automatically signs in on startup, but a handful of those gameres will be shopping for Xbox Live Arcade games to see what Microsoft is now offering them and their new console. Many XBLA games the current 360 crowd is bored of will be fresh and new to holiday adopters so it’s very important to keep the system online.

Much like Amazon, sales will decrease when the service is busy or under heavy load. Hopefully Microsoft is ready to make a great first impression to new buyers and give them the option to buy high valued (high markup) electronic downloads.

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It seems the console maker who’s trailing in sales typically says how great competition is and how it’s great for the consumer. Sony’s not leading the console race, as of now, and Sony Computer Entertainment Europe president David Reeves stated in a recent interview:

The winner, he said, is the consumer. “That’s why we are not going to slag off Microsoft or Nintendo at all,” he said, “because again it’s rather like the trainer market: one year it’s Reebok, next year it’s Nike, and then suddenly it’s Adidas; it’s cyclical, but in the end everyone wins in five to ten years.”

Sony continues to speak towards their “10 year plan” and how they’re increasing momentum in the market. They’re not winning in sales but with a ten years to go, this is just the beginning. Had this statement come from Microsoft it would be a chance to worry, but Sony has proof to backup their statements.

The PlayStation 2 is going strong as a nine year-old and doesn’t seem to be letting up in game releases. Sony’s press conferences always cover the PlayStation 2 in their talks with the PSP and PlayStation 3 for three big reasons: it’s worth bragging about, it distracts from lower PS3 sales and it separates them from the competition.

Where is the GameCube or classic Xbox in Nintendo and Microsoft’s press conferences and number crunch reports? The fact is, the companies have given up on both products retiring them as “last generation” (translation: poor sales). What better reason to buy a PlayStation 3 than knowing the company is in the game for the long haul?

It might be bit cheaper to buy an Xbox 360 but who’s to say Microsoft isn’t going to announce their next generation console tomorrow and kill off the Xbox 360? Obviously, Microsoft will deny those claims but there will always be doubt without a proven track record.

On the other hand, Microsoft hasn’t seen the success in the classic Xbox and Nintendo hasn’t seen nearly the fervor over the GameCube as compared to their current generation consoles. So, that begs the question, why would they halt all that for new console announcements?

Until they’ve had more time in the market, we cannot be 100% certain what Nintendo and Microsoft are going to do when it comes to next-generation announcements while Sony’s been very clear in each press conference. As Kaz Hirai said to Eurogamer earlier:

“We certainly don’t do the consumer the disservice of basically saying that the consoles have gone by the wayside because we have a new one. Right now, a prime example? PS2 is nine years into it. Where’s the Xbox? Where’s the GameCube?”

If one console maker is looking for a way to stand out and explain their slow sales figures, Sony’s got the PS2 and its long history in their back pocket.

Now, if we could only get those game designers to continue to take it seriously and not put all their eggs into the PS3 basket.

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