Is This The Golden Age of Gaming?

Entertainment Software Association (ESA) president Michael Gallagher called this the “Golden Age of Gaming” during his E3 keynote address. Calling out innovators like Nintendo who have “helped revolutionize our industry” and Sony’s Home initiative.

The keynote fell on the ears of fifty or so people who filled the large room awaiting his talk. Gallagher believes we’re in some of the best years of the gaming industries life based on… sales figures, technology and innovation?

If we’re in the Golden Age of Gaming we might as well pack it in now. Text book definitions of the phrase are defined as “the first and best of the four ages of humankind; an era of peace and innocence that finally yielded to the silver age.”  Or, “the most flourishing period in the history of a nation, literature, etc.” (dictionary.com)

By that definition, we’ve seen the best to come and everything from here is downhill. When a person retires from work they’re often said to have reach the “golden age” of their career. Is this the correct message to be sending to the industry? That we’ve done it all and now it’s time to sit and relax.

In terms or progress it seems we’ve only just begun to realize the potential of the growing industry. We’ve learned there is a place for intense graphical games and fully interactive motion-sensitive product lines and accessories. We’ve broken the mold on game controller designs with the Wii controller, Wii Fit, Rock Band, Guitar Hero and keypad controllers like the 360 attachment.

Nothing has been perfect or “at peace” in the industry. Nintendo is releasing the Wii Motion Plus accessory to increase their sensitivity in their games and, overall, fix the limitations of their Wii controller. Sony continues to work on scaling and global presence in Home while Microsoft continues to update their Xbox Live solution with new creative community features, not mention the failure rate on the 360.

The console realm is far from perfect and the PC gaming realm is an ever growing technological race of bleeding edge graphic cards and powerhouse processors. PC’s and consoles shrink their technology, conserve power with new advances and are still learning how to handle multi-core designs. How is this the golden age of gaming when we’ve not yet found our true potential?

Sony has said they’re working on a 10-year game plan and you can only “imagine” what the PS3’s going to have for gaming titles in two or three years. They’re jazzed for the upcoming 2009 and beyond; if this was truly the golden age of gaming we’d all be sitting back sucking on grapes handed to us on golden platters by servants.

For Gallagher to even suggest we’ve hit our full potential shows he’s not looking at the big picture. Perhaps he meant E3 has hit its golden age?

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Studios Closing: The Good, Bad and UglyStudios Closing: The Good, Bad and Ugly

Gamers around the world are going to feel the pain in the 2009 holiday season after the economy shakes apart many great development studios. Electronic Arts feels the pain of being a public company as their investors complain about lackluster revenue, THQ deals with closing studios to extend their runway and other firms will lose more headcount in the coming months.

It’s not all bad. But, it’s going to get ugly before it gets better.

The financial market has played tricks on everyone in our global economy and companies across all industries are going to feel a bit of a tightening around the belt. Investors are shaken and doing their best to protect their investments and cutting loose those that aren’t projecting profits in the near future. Game studios are going to slow their financial burn rates, trim a bit of the fat and hunker down the long term. The end result, next years holiday season will have a few less games because those games are being dropped to the floor now.

Mid-sized studios within larger firms may find their projects canceled or put on hold and their employees re-structured or let go while big studios assess what projects will make the long haul. This is the ugly side of the business, having to make a decision on what games stay and what games go with the grief of having to tell some of your best talent “goodbye.”

The bad part of the industry is occurring today, with publishers posting mediocre profits and trying to convince their investors to be patient and trust they’ve got a firm hold on their destiny. The game industry is not alone in this, many firms are reducing head count and many startups are finding themselves without series A or B funding; they’re closing their doors because the money is being directed to more stable ventures.

What’s the good in all of this?

(more…)

Kaz Hirai Dooms 360 To Short LifeKaz Hirai Dooms 360 To Short Life

Sony’s PlayStation 3 has a 10-year plan. We’ve heard about the plan, we’ve seen Sony’s current execution and we’re starting to see some of the titles making their way to the PS3 for 2009. The Xbox 360? Kaz, Sony Computer Entertainment’s head man, made his thoughts clear when speaking to Official PlayStation Magazine.

kaz“Last time I checked, they’ve never had a console that’s been on the market for more than four or five years and we’ve committed to a ten year life cycle, so you do the math…,” he says. He goes on to state that the Xbox 360 won’t have a larger install base by the end of their 10-year plan has been completed, “unless things go really bad.”

Of course, nobody says Microsoft’s 10-year plan isn’t to push out yet another console. Is that wise? We don’t really know, but you can’t count them out on it. Maybe they’ll only have half the install base but two consoles in the market within the next ten years, nobody really knows.

The one major hole we can see in his comments revolve around their claims that the Microsoft doesn’t have any history of a console being on the market for very long. If I recall, Sony managed to squeek one by on Nintendo with the original PlayStation, which changed everything for the next ten years. Sony didn’t have a 5-year track record when they started taking Nintendo down, why does Microsoft need to have an extensive resume as well?

As for Wii?

“It’s difficult to talk about Nintendo because we don’t look at their console as being competitors. They’re a different world and we operate in our world — that’s kind of the way I look at things…” (kotaku)

Say what you want about Microsoft vs. Sony, but it sure sounds like Sony doesn’t want to acknowlege Nintendo’s success because it casts a dark shadow on their own product. Nintendo and Sony have been battling for years, that’s just the way it is and that’s how the industry sees it. When NPD releases numbers, when journalists write articles about consoles and when the war is finished one thing remains constant: all three consoles are included in the equation.

Wallets Shrink, Used Game Market GrowsWallets Shrink, Used Game Market Grows

Over the last year we’ve seen developers scrambling to find “value add” features to new game purchases. Their goal is to convince the customer to buy new instead of used because developers don’t see a penny from a used game sale. While GameStop sees 48% profit margins from the used game market developers struggle to stay floating in the industry.

for-saleThis is not the fault of GameStop and their 48% profit margins because they’re only getting 7% to 20% profit margins (say analysts) on new game sales. As someone that’s run a game store online, if you’re getting 15%+ on a new game you’ve got some great hookups in the distribution channel or are buying in huge quantities.

Buying games in huge quantities to build profit margins can be a huge mistake in this industry. Gamers are fickle little creatures and they’re going to buy their top tier games for a few weeks and then sales will drop significantly. No retail chain wants to purchase a thousand copies of GTA IV (only as an example) and sell seven hundred over the first few week to be stuck holding onto a few hundred copies when the dust settles. Now you’ll have to put them on sale to get them out of the store because the hardcore gamer have already done their shopping and you’re not going to get any price protection if you’re not a major player in the industry.

Why take 7% profit margins when you can get 48% on a used game? The gamers don’t seem to mind because they’ll trade in a used copy of a sports title like Madden to save $5.00 on the latest franchise release. Gamers will buy Fable 2, beat it in a week and rush to the store to get the “most for their dollar” before the game gets stale and buy-back prices drop like a stone. Why not rent Fable 2 and save yourself $50.00? Of course, renting pisses off developers as well because they see no additional revenue.

While the economy struggles and consumers fight for their jobs, the entertainment side of life continues to grow. People would rather “cocoon” in their homes playing video games and watching movies on their brand new HD television because it takes them away from the low points of the economy if only for a few hours. History has shown us trends in entertainment during the down points of economies, it’s natural to want to get away for a bit.

But, consumers want to play these games on the cheap because their job may not be there tomorrow. Saving $5.00 knowing the store just took the title in for half the price doesn’t bother you; $5.00 in your pocket is better than in their pocket right? The fact that they just pocketed upward of 40% on the game doesn’t matter to you — it’s all about your bottom line!

While we’re bargain hunting during the recession developers are going to try and up sell you to a new copy of the game. If that means giving you special game items and features with a “one time code” upon purchase, it will be up to you to decide if it’s valuable. All the while GameStop will lock out the game industry from selling used games because 42% of their overall gross profit is from used game sales.

You, the consumer, benefits from a slightly cheaper game, bargain bin fire sales and additional game features if you do choose to buy new. The economic down turn is a great time to be a gamer, as long as you remain employed.