Rhythm Gaming Saturation Point?

Rhythm Gaming is all the rage, or is it? Turns out Guitar Hero: World Tour didn’t meet or exceed the figures they hit with Guitar Hero III. Where GH3 brought in $115 million in the first week, GHWT brought in $67 million in the same time frame.

Why?

There are plenty of factors that could cut down the sales units, considering those that can purchase Guitar Hero World Tour don’t have to purchase additional instruments to play the game like they played GH3.

  • Rock Band 2: This game arrived before Guitar Hero 3 and folks went for this game instead because it was first to launch. Some gamers have to make a choice on which to purchase because they can’t buy both.
  • Hot Games: Although Rhythm gaming can be fun, a lot of great games are arriving this season so gamers have to make some big decisions.
  • Economics: The economy isn’t exactly thriving right now and retail outlets are already predicting less than stellar numbers.
  • Saturation: Since the original Guitar Hero game, we’ve had a number of titles from Activision including their Aerosmith edition and Harmonix pulling out Rock Band and Rock Band 2. There is talk of a Hendrix version and a Metallic release – how much is too much?

We know people love charts, so here is another to toss at you via Kotaku:

Guitar Hero World Tour Sales, via Kotaku

The break down from Guitar Hero 3 to World Tour is obvious, also apparent is the shift in console when buying into the rhythm gaming franchises. The Wii has started taking more market share, odd considering the DLC isn’t there, and the PS3 is showing its lackluster sales of the console by growing in proportion but not excelling to grab huge share (PS3 fanboys attack!). Sony kicked ass by taking control of the share using their PlayStation 2 with Guitar Hero 3, but has lost that lead for the World Tour.

Will these lower sales figure change the future roadmap for Activision in their Guitar Hero franchise or are they satisfied taking home $67 million in the first week of the launch. That is still a lot of money and probably doesn’t even consider any money they could (or will) potentially make on the World Tour hardware.

Luckily, the rhythm gaming content doesn’t get old with age, it just gets more classic. No doubt Guitar Hero World Tour will be landing in homes over the holidays and into 2009.

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Although PlayStation 3 is still third in worldwide sales, behind the Xbox 360 by about 5-million units, the PS3 community services now have as many online gamers as Xbox 360 says Sony. Sony posted on their blog saying, “with 14 million active accounts and 273 million pieces of content downloaded, we know that you’re thirsting for this digital entertainment.”

Although US sales of the 360 are killing the PS3, the community membership does give gamers a reason to get online with the PS3. Nobody wants to buy into a console that has very few active online games or an easy way to find friends (*cough* Wii). Having 14-million users helps them bridge the sales gap by building gamer confidence. Social networking is the new term; gamers want to socialize with each other online and with their consoles.

Microsoft recently announced their 14-million subscriber base and continue to update folks when they hit big milestones. The main difference, LIVE is a subscription system — those 14-million gamers are also paying for the service (we’re not sure if silver memberships count in that figure) and this means income for Microsoft while Sony does their service for free.

Although Microsoft is making money on their service, no doubt Sony will bypass their total membership because it has no cost barriers to play. The biggest cost barrier to get on Sony’s network is the PS3 itself and many gamers hold out for price drops which aren’t coming anytime soon (so says Sony). However, building a larger community on a free network allows Sony to siphon gamers to buy downloadable content, games, music, movies and all the goodies that go with these services.

It seems a better idea to triple your audience with a free service knowing a large amount of “hardcore gamers” attach themselves to the easy to buy content on said service. So, is it better to make US $50.00 a year on half the population or give triple that population an opportunity to spend more money on content?

“Thanks to all of you, PS3’s momentum is stronger than ever. There are nearly 17 million PS3 systems around the world, and in the United States, PS3 hardware sales are up nearly 100 percent from where we were at this time last year. Software sales have tripled from a year ago. Yes, we’re proud about everything we’ve accomplished, and we’re even more psyched about where we’re going with our holiday software lineup” (playstation.com)

Eventually gamers may have access to Sony’s Home project, which could raise the community figures and give Xbox 360 something less to brag about. Although, we’re sure Sony would rather be boasting “number one” console again, at least they’ve finally got a win on their side because 14-million users is only the beginning for them.

Plus, it’s hard to argue free.

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Since the last breath of HD-DVD rumors have been flying about Microsoft’s need (desire?) to get into the Blu-Ray hardware for their 360. The rumor was feasible because Microsoft already spent time working the HD-DVD angle for their “home entertainment” Xbox 360 console.

Although Microsoft’s Shane Kim told Forbe’s, “I can categorically say that we’re not working on a Blu-Ray player for Xbox 360,” there is further proof in Microsoft’s direction: Netflix. From a profit standpoint, Microsoft’s got more to work with in a downloadable digital format with Netflix than they do sending another specification off to manufacturing.

The effort that went into the HD-DVD addon was significant but with risk comes reward, but risk also comes with the chance of failure. Microsoft had to write it off as a failure, do they really need to go through it all again when digital downloads are the future of media? Probably not.

The Xbox 360 is going to be three years old this year, positioning another addon hardware storage player seems like the wrong idea for many reasons:

  • Spend your R&D efforts on the next-generation console, not more fluff addons to compete against Sony.
  • Blu-Ray for movies is still risky, considering the cost of movies in the market (and their slight increase when HD-DVD died).
  • Global adoption of Blu-Ray is still years off

Undoubtedly, Blu-Ray would be a great storage medium for their next-generation console because it could be established as the core storage platform for developers. If the intent is just to play Blu-Ray movies, you’re going to work hard, today, when adoption rates are so low.

Until you can use a Blu-Ray player for both games and movies, stick with digital downloads of movies and retail purchases for games. Maybe next-generation.

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Yoichi Wada of Square Enix has let the cat out of the bag. The cat is Final Fantasy XIII for the Xbox 360 and it will be simultaneously released with the PlayStation 3 version. This may be an end to an exclusive era for Sony as all their big brands jump to non-exclusion.

This is probably a result of gamers slow adoption of the PlayStation 3 hardware for various issues, one being cost. Personally I think Sony’s move to say “no price cut” in our near future is a grand mistake. It is well understood that they want profitability over quantity but you’re losing your exclusives to a broader audience.

Each generation of consoles brings new industry trends and, for now, exclusive games from third party developers is too risky when you look at overall cost to produce a block buster title like Final Fantasy XIII. Consider the sales of GTA IV, although they were in the millions, imagine how low it would have been if they only released on the PS3. They’d might have actually lost money on the game.

Square Enix can see the writing on the wall, that writing says “ship on as many mediums as possible.” Gamers are split between consoles with a huge segment on Wii and Xbox 360, if you can at least ship on one of those consoles along with the PS3 you’ll do better financially.

(Thanks, Kotaku)