Since the last breath of HD-DVD rumors have been flying about Microsoft’s need (desire?) to get into the Blu-Ray hardware for their 360. The rumor was feasible because Microsoft already spent time working the HD-DVD angle for their “home entertainment” Xbox 360 console.
Although Microsoft’s Shane Kim told Forbe’s, “I can categorically say that we’re not working on a Blu-Ray player for Xbox 360,” there is further proof in Microsoft’s direction: Netflix. From a profit standpoint, Microsoft’s got more to work with in a downloadable digital format with Netflix than they do sending another specification off to manufacturing.
The effort that went into the HD-DVD addon was significant but with risk comes reward, but risk also comes with the chance of failure. Microsoft had to write it off as a failure, do they really need to go through it all again when digital downloads are the future of media? Probably not.
The Xbox 360 is going to be three years old this year, positioning another addon hardware storage player seems like the wrong idea for many reasons:
- Spend your R&D efforts on the next-generation console, not more fluff addons to compete against Sony.
- Blu-Ray for movies is still risky, considering the cost of movies in the market (and their slight increase when HD-DVD died).
- Global adoption of Blu-Ray is still years off
Undoubtedly, Blu-Ray would be a great storage medium for their next-generation console because it could be established as the core storage platform for developers. If the intent is just to play Blu-Ray movies, you’re going to work hard, today, when adoption rates are so low.
Until you can use a Blu-Ray player for both games and movies, stick with digital downloads of movies and retail purchases for games. Maybe next-generation.
@New Mass Effect 3 multiplayer rumors arise:
Jonah, I see what you mean. Co-op is the better kind of MP for a game that is thick on story. The alternative would be an MMO, but I believe that will require a lot more time to wrap up.
@Bethesda says Xbox 720 three years away:
Dunno. From a technical point of view, the components to make it already exist. So I am siding with Jonah, and say 2012.
Another reason for delays is shipping Windows 8. If MSFT wants to ship both Win 8 and the new console, then I can see the console being delayed by Win 8.
@QOTW:
Don’t think they qualify as board games, but: backgammon, remi.
I just wanted to weigh in on the console launch argument. Firstly, the N64 launched at $200, not $150. Secondly, I don’t believe inflation adjustment is a useful concept when thinking of the historic nature of console launches because the prices are fairly similar across time (for example the Atari 2600 was $200 in 1977 – same as the N64 nearly 20 years later).
Of course, historically, there have been expensive game consoles such as the Neo-Geo or the 3DO, but these were more boutique, high end machines. I think it is useful to compare the launch of the PS3 to these consoles. This was the mistake Sony made with the machine’s launch: They tried to sell a high end machine to a mass market that wasn’t willing to pay the high cost. I for one waited 3 years until it was finally at the same price the PS2 launched at. I considered that the effective launch of the console.
As with any piece of technology (unless it’s made by Apple) one can wait a certain amount of time for the product to come down in price to where the consumer is comfortable with the cost. Expecting a console to launch at $100, however, is unreasonable. This has not ever happened with the launch of any home console that I am aware of and certainly could not be done without a severe loss to the manufacturer on each unit. That being said, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect a new console to launch at $200-$300 dollars, even in the HD/3D/recession era we live in now.
Regarding the possibility of an Xbox 360 successor in 2012: I believe this is highly possible. I hardly think it would be “too soon” at that point considering the console will have been out for 7 years. In historic terms, this would be considered a long cycle. I think Microsoft may be weary of putting out a console too hastily considering that the 360 came out only 4 years after the original Xbox, and they really seem to be pushing their Kinect as an extension of the lifespan of the console, but a 7 year run seems quite reasonable to me. Also, it would be a prime opportunity to sucker punch the Nintendo Wii U and possibly get an early lead on the next console war.